Long-Term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America : Review of the Evidence

Abstract

The report critically review the literature on the long-term impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs in Latin America. We define long-term impacts as those that both: 1) are related to the accumulation of human capital, and; 2) are observed after beneficiary children have reached a later stage of the life-cycle. We focus on two transitions. The first is that of children exposed to CCTs in utero or early childhood (under age 6), who have then transitioned to school ages. The second is that of children exposed to CCTs during school-age, who have then transitioned to early adulthood. Evidence is largely mixed. The experimental literature finds consistent positive effects on schooling, as well as some positive impacts on cognitive skills and learning, socioemotional skills and off-farm employment and income. However, many other estimates are not statistically different from zero and it is often not possible to discern whether this is due to lack of impact or to methodological shortcomings. Nonexperimental evidence also is mixed. Developing further opportunities for research with a clean identification strategy for the measurement of long-term impacts should be high on the agenda. As original beneficiaries continue to age, this should also be increasingly possible.